Abstract
1. Introduction
The consumption of electric energy in
Bangladesh has grown notably in the last few decades and the gap between demand
and production of this energy is increasing day by day. The country is facing a
major challenge to meet up the demand. Demand for electricity in Bangladesh is
projected to reach 34,000 megawatts (MW) by 2030 (EXPORT.GOV,
2017) .
According to Bangladesh Power Development Board, installed Generation capacity
including Captive Power (as on 30 September 2017) has increased to 15,821 MW. (Bangladesh Power Development Board, 2017) . Such production
shortages are greatly affecting the growth of GDP and overall development of
this country. With a power sector which is almost dependent on natural-gas
fired generation, the country is confronting a simultaneous shortage of natural
gas and electricity. Now-a-days 63.94% (98709MW) power comes from the power
plants of gas supply (Bangladesh Power Development
Board, 2017) .
Other fuels for generating low-cost, base-load electricity, such as coal, or
large hydropower, are not readily available and thus these primary resources
are no more a dependable source of electricity production. The present system
of electricity production is not only inadequate but also the harm to the
nature is more from this system. Burning of fossil fuel produces a heavy amount
of greenhouse gases which damage the equilibrium of nature. These gases cause
the temperature of the earth to increase which leads to the melting of polar
ice. Thus, the sea level rises and more and more land goes under water. So, it
is time to go beyond the traditional lines of production of electric energy and
bring about a significant change in its production. To keep pace with the
increasing demand it needs a source that can produce much more electricity than
the present production. Such a breakthrough in electricity production can only
be achieved through the introduction of Nuclear Power Plant in power generation
system of Bangladesh.
Nuclear energy is produced by fission
reaction of radioactive metals in a nuclear reactor. The amount of energy
produced from nuclear reaction is gigantic compared to the energy produced from
other primary resources. Nuclear power plants also have a higher rate of
efficiency compared to other primary energy based power plants. On the other
hand, a nuclear power plant produces very little amount of greenhouse gases, so
it is much safer. (Chowdhury, Shezan, & M.A.R. Sarkar, 2014)
2. Present Electricity Scenario in Bangladesh:
At present the demand of electricity
is very high in Bangladesh and it is increasing day by day. In this country
only 68% people are now being facilitated with electric supply, leaving the
rest 32% people into darkness. To keep the wheel of development rolling and
active, this large mass needs to be brought under electric coverage. Power
Plants are being commissioned on a regular basis to meet up demands, but with
the booming population and the hard endeavor for industrialization the need for
electricity is also booming.
According to Power Division of Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral
Resources, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, Plants
Commissioned During 2009 – December 2013 (MW) are as follows:
YEAR 2009
2010 2011
2012 2013
TOTAL
Public 255
800 607
587 2249
Private 356
520 963
344 2259
Power Import 500
500
Total 356
775 1763
951 1163
5008
Ref: (Power Division board, 2013)
The net production capacity of
Electric Power Plants of this country has reached 10445 MW in the year 2014 but
the maximum power generation in 2014 (as on 18 July, 2014) is 7418.00 MW. The
installed capacity of BPDB (Bangladesh Power Development Board) Power Plants as
on November 2014
3. Problems with present electricity scenario:
3.1 Production shortage:
The production curve has always
lagged the demand curve of electricity in Bangladesh. The insufficient
electricity production of this country has always pulled back this developing
country. The demand and production data of the past few years describes the
scenario best.
|
Fiscal
Year
|
Peak
Demand (MW)
|
Maxm
Generation (MW)
|
|
2010
|
6,454.00
|
4698.5
|
|
2011
|
6,765.00
|
3924.50
|
|
2012
|
7,518.00
|
4956.00
|
|
2013
|
8,349.00
|
4965.00
|
|
2014
|
9,268
|
6134.00
|
|
2015
|
10,283
|
6285.00
|
|
2016
|
11,405
|
7991.00
|
|
2017
|
12,644
|
9507.00
|
Ref: (Power System Master Plan, 2010) ; (BPDB, 2017)
3.2 Decreasing stock of primary resources:
Bangladesh has very few natural
resources which are being used to produce electricity, such as- coal, natural
gas, furnace oil, diesel and hydro. Coal is harnessed from coal mines situated
in the northern portion of Bangladesh and there are several gas fields lying
all around the country. But it is not possible to harness enough coal from the
mines because of negative effects of it on nature and gas fields have limited balance
of gas left in them. Bangladesh must import furnace oil and diesel from abroad.
At the current rate of natural use in Bangladesh the current estimated proven reserves
would last 45 years. Even if the present rate of use increased at 10% per year,
these reserves would last about 17 years (source: Wikipedia). Power sector
ranks the highest (44%); fertilizer sector ranks the second (28%); and
industry, domestic, commercial and other sectors together rank third (22%) in
gas consumption. Currently 12gas fields under public and private sectors are in
production with gas supply between 900 and 930mmcfg per day.
3.3 Negative impact on environment:
These days one of the biggest
concerns of the world is the greenhouse gas emission. The burning of fossil
fuel emits harmful gases like carbon di-oxide, carbon monoxide, sulphur
di-oxide, sulphur tri-oxide, etc. in the atmosphere altogether known as the greenhouse
gases. These gases raise the temperature of the atmosphere trapping the heat
radiated from the earth making the world a vulnerable place to live in. The
chart below demonstrates the emission of greenhouse gases from production of
electricity from different raw materials –
Ref: (IAEA, 2010)
As the chart demonstrates, average
greenhouse gas emission from coal based electricity production is about 1100
grams of CO2 per kWh and from nuclear power plant it is about 15 grams of CO2
per kWh. So nuclear power plants are much healthier for the earth.
4.0 The Alternative:
With such a sharp increase of demand
and a decrease in the reserves of primary resources for electricity production,
the perfect alternative is the introduction of nuclear based power production. Nucleus,
one of the fundamental particles inside an atom releases energy when some
special atoms are combined together to form large atom or some special large
atoms are split to form smaller ones. In nuclear fission, atoms are split apart
to form smaller atoms, releasing energy. Nuclear power plants use nuclear
fission reaction to produce electricity. Usually in commercial production of
nuclear energy, special isotopes of Uranium and Plutonium are used. The general
reaction is figured out below-
235 U+ neutron fission →fission
fragments +2.4 neutrons+192.9 MeV
239 Pu+ neutron fission →fission
fragments +2.9 neutrons+198.5 MeV
This massive energy is not produced
in open places like the burning of fuels. This production
needs an isolated and controlled
environment. A nuclear power plant has its own cooling
system and such a facility is
generally established near big natural water reservoirs. The
typical components of a nuclear power
plant are shown below.
5.0 Advantages of Nuclear Based Energy Production:
5.1 Production Capacity:
This country needs a stable and
powerful source which will be able to supply energy continuously for a very
long period of time. Here Nuclear Energy can be the best solution to this
problem. Primary sources of energy can’t provide that much of energy as Nuclear
Energy. Also the lifespan of a typical nuclear power plant is much higher than
any other plant.
A comparison between heating values
of different fuels are given below.
|
Type
of fuel
|
Heat
Value (MJ/kg)
|
|
Firewood
|
16
|
|
Brown Coal
|
9
|
|
Black Coal (low quality)
|
13-20
|
|
Black Coal
|
24-30
|
|
Natural Gas
|
39
|
|
Crude Oil
|
45-46
|
|
Natural Uranium in light water reactor
|
500000
|
Ref: (Anglart, 2011)
It is seen that the source of nuclear
energy- natural uranium can provide about 10000 times more energy than crude
oil- the second highest heat value provider. The difference in the heat value
of uranium compared with coal and other fuels is important since it directly
affects the amount of wastes that each fuel produces. For instance, a single
1000 MW coal-fired plant produces over 300,000 tons of ash, 44,000 tons of
sulphur di-oxide, 22,000 tons of Nitrous Oxide and 6 million tons of carbon. In
contrast, a 1000MW of nuclear power plant produces a mere 3 cubic meters of
wastes after reprocessing the spent fuel, 300 tons of radioactive wastes and 0.20
tons of plutonium. There are also different transport requirements for both nuclear
fuel and fossil fuels in the context of Bangladesh. Transportation costs are higher
for coal and oil systems at 20000 train cars or 10 super tankers, in relation
to a nuclear plant at just 3-4 trucks. Around the world, there is projected to
be around 860 nuclear power plants generating over 800,000 MW.
5.2 Fulfilling Future Demand:
To make a proper power generation
master plan, it is required to make a proper speculation of the speed at which
the demand is increasing. According to the Power System Master Plan (PSMP)
2010, demand forecast made by Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
based on 7% GDP growth rate is as follows:
|
Fiscal
Year
|
Peak
Demand (MW)
|
|
2014
|
9,268
|
|
2015
|
10,283
|
|
2016
|
11,405
|
|
2017
|
12,644
|
|
2018
|
14,014
|
|
2019
|
15,527
|
|
2020
|
17,304
|
|
2021
|
18,838
|
|
2022
|
20,443
|
|
2023
|
21,993
|
|
2024
|
23,581
|
|
2025
|
25,199
|
|
2026
|
26,838
|
|
2027
|
28,487
|
|
2028
|
30,134
|
|
2029
|
31,873
|
|
2030
|
33,708
|
Ref: (Power System Master Plan, 2010)
This speculation is made on the basis
of a fixed GDP. So an increasing GDP will definitely increase the demand much
more. To fulfill such a great demand of electricity in the future present
production needs to be incremented greatly which can only be done with nuclear
power plants.
5.3 Effect on Environment:
Nuclear reaction does not produce
greenhouse gases during production of energy. Though small amount of greenhouse
gases are produced in a nuclear power plant due to the use of supporting
machineries like turbine and cooler, it is far less compared to the produced
greenhouse gases in other power plants. Thus a nuclear power plant saves the
earth from the harmful effects of these toxic gases.
5.4 Safety Features:
In the past, the disposal of
radioactive waste was difficult and harmful to the nature to some extent.
Besides, operating nuclear power plant machineries and the cooling procedure
were very difficult. But presently due to the improvement of the power plant up
to 3rdGeneration, the use of pressurized water reactor and the fully automated power
plants make the nuclear based power production very secured. Besides the inbuilt
safety features reduces the chances of accidents significantly. These safety features
consist of multiple layers of protective walls and emergency core cooling system.
5.5 Advancements regarding Nuclear Energy in
Bangladesh:
In 1963 the Ruppur site was selected
for the establishment of the first nuclear power plant of this country. In 2001
Bangladesh adopted a national Nuclear Power Action Plan. On 24 June 2007,
Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh announced plans to build a
nuclear power plant to meet electricity shortages. In May 2010, Bangladesh
signed a civilian nuclear agreement with the Russian Government. Bangladesh
also has framework agreements for peaceful nuclear energy applications with the
US, France and China. In February 2011, Bangladesh reached an agreement with
Russia to build the 2,000 megawatt (MW) Nuclear Power Plant with two reactors,
each of which will generate 1,200 MW of power. The nuclear power plant will be
built at Ruppur, on the banks of the Padma River, in the Ishwardi sub district
of Pabna, in the northwest of the country. The RNPP (Ruppur Nuclear Power
Plant) is estimated to cost up to US$2 billion, and start operating by 2021.
The inter-governmental agreement (IGA) was officially signed on 2 November
2011.On May 29, 2013 honorable Prime Minister of Bangladesh declared that a
second nuclear power plant will be constructed in an inland river island in southern
region of the country.
The information of these nuclear
power plant projects is summarized below-
|
Station/
Project Name
|
Type
|
Capacity
|
Expected
Construction
Start
Year
|
Expected
Commercial
Year
|
|
1.
Ruppur Nuclear
Power
Plant (Unit- I)
|
VVER
|
1000~1250
MWe
|
By
2016
|
By
2021
|
|
2.
Ruppur Nuclear
Power
Plant (Unit- II)
|
VVER
|
1000~
1250 MWe
|
One
year after the first unit built
|
|
7. Risk Factors of Nuclear Energy in Bangladesh:
The
Bangladesh government signed an agreement with Russia in 2011 to build a
nuclear power plant on the banks of Padma River in Pabna district. Under the
agreement between the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission and Russian
state-owned Atomstroyexport the nuclear power project will be completed by
2021. The project’s feasibility evaluation and environmental impact assessment
have been carried out and are now under review, according to Dr Shawkat Akbar,
project director of the power plant. Ref: (Islam, 2015)
7.1. Thirsty Nuclear:
Nuclear
plants around the world are usually built near large lakes, river or the ocean
since lack of water could cause a major nuclear disaster.” Experts warn that if
the emergency cooling system of the Rooppur plant is suspended because of lack
of water or power, its reactors will meltdown, triggering a catastrophe like
Chernobyl and Fukushima.”
The plant
will use about 455,000 gallons per minute of water, said mechanical engineer KM
Mahbubur Rahman, who has independently calculated the water use of the Rooppur
power project. Experts warn that if the emergency cooling system of the Rooppur
plant is suspended because of lack of water or power, its reactors will
meltdown, triggering a catastrophe like Chernobyl and Fukushima. Nuclear power
plants are about 33% efficient –
only one-third of power generated by the reactor reaches the grid as
electricity, the rest is wasted as heat released into the atmosphere or
surrounding water. The Rooppur power plant will not be an exception. Cold water
will be drawn from the Padma River to cool the power plant’s equipment and warm
water will be put back into the river, potentially disrupting ecosystems.
7.2. India controls river flow
The Padma is the main distributary of
the Ganga, a transboundary river that flows from India. India built the Farakka
Barrage across the Ganga in the 1970s to divert water to the Hooghly River and
flush out sediment clogging up Kolkata port. But this has contributed to the
drastic reduction of water flow in Padma in Bangladesh, destroyed agricultural
land and displaced entire villages. Now, every dry season the river faces water
shortages. According to data from the Bangladesh Water Development Board, the
average minimum flow of the river has been 22,300 cusec (cubic feet per second)
over the last 12 years, which would allow withdrawal of around 345 cusec per
day of water the plant requires. But a drastic drop in river levels– as
happened in May 2011 when water levels fell to only 3,100 cusec – could pose a
massive threat to the safe operation of the nuclear plant. The project
developer claims there is sufficient water. “The plant will not face any challenge for lack
of water. Also, it is quite possible to keep the plant operational through
withdrawal of underground water,” Dr Akbar claimed. However, independent
engineer Rahman calculated that the nuclear power plant will require far more
than the operators acknowledge. But since the project’s environmental impact
assessment and feasibility study are not publicly available it is hard to
verify claims. There are other challenges. Nuclear power plants require very
clean water for its condenser and cooling systems to keep the plant
operational. But the Padma River carries a huge amount of silt and sand during
the monsoon and so the muddy water has to be purified before it is used. Mahbub
said the solution will be to build large ponds to allow the suspended solids to
settle and provide clean water for the cooling system. Water purification
plants will also be installed nearby to supply clean water to the plant, officials say,
which will consume a lot of power. Apart from water from the Padma, the Rooppur
power project will have to store enough water in reservoir tanks at the site in
case of emergencies.
7.3. Earthquake fears
Earthquakes could post an even bigger
threat. Bangladesh is located near three active earthquake fault lines –
including the same fault line that caused the powerful earthquakes that shook
Nepal last month, killing over 8,000 people. “If the Rooppur power plant
collapses due to any accident or disaster, about 3.5 million people living in
30-kilometre radius of the plant will need to be shielded, which
will be a quite impossible task for the country.” Dr Jasim Uddin, a former
safety director at the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA), said that
although the engineering of nuclear projects has improved, they cannot
withstand powerful earthquakes like the one that hit Japan. What’s more, the
plant is situated in a densely populated area, so the risks are greater. “If
the Rooppur power plant collapses due to any accident or disaster, about 3.5
million people living in 30- kilometre radius of the plant will need to be
shielded, which will be a quite impossible task for the country,” he added.
Project officials say a seismic
monitoring station as already been set up under the project site and they are
monitoring seismic activity. “Rooppur nuclear power plant is not only a
national issue but an international issue. Both the laws of the local and
vendor countries and the IAEA guidelines are being followed to ensure the
safety and security of the project,” Dr Akbar said.
7.4. Terror threat and security issues
In other cases, the questions about
the Rooppur project remain unanswered. The Bangladeshi experts have no idea
about national preparations for training, equipment, and deployment of
specially assigned servicemen to protect the NPP against illegal and violent
actions that could compromise its security, including possible terrorist
attacks. The question about the preparedness of emergency and enforcement
services and the armed forces to react to probable accidents that are related
to the national nuclear infrastructure has no clear answer. The Bangladeshi
experts and journalists suppose that such preparations just don’t exist. This
issue relates not only to Rooppur NPP. Given the nuclear deterrence relations
between China and India, and India and Pakistan, Bangladesh finds itself in
close proximity to potential targets for nuclear strikes in the case of very
unlikely, but not fully impossible, armed conflicts between these countries. To
minimize negative consequences for Bangladesh from such a case, there is a need
for Dhaka to have civil preparedness and public awareness in the field of
nuclear security and safety. No doubt, these questions should be addressed
primarily to the Bangladeshi authorities, not to Russia. These questions go
beyond Russian commitments, according to two agreements between Russia and
Bangladesh. (Agreement between the Russians and Bangladeshi governments on
‘Cooperation in the Field of Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy of May 21, 2010,’
and the above-mentioned agreement of Nov. 2, 2011). Ref: (TOPYCHKANOV, 2017)
7.5. National Security
These questions are directly related
to the security and safety of the Russian-backed NPP in Rooppur, which is why
it would be reasonable for Russia to help Bangladesh to address them too. If
Russia wants to defend its investments in nuclear energy in Bangladesh, it
should be involved into wider cooperation with this country. This includes
exchange of the best practices in the fields of nuclear security and safety,
joint trainings for special forces that are assigned for providing security of
critical infrastructure and collaboration between emergency services of both
countries. There is a demand from public actors in Bangladesh for more
transparency when it comes to the nuclear cooperation between Dhaka and Moscow.
The Bangladeshi and Russian authorities could be more responsive to this
demand. Even if some details were already disclosed in agreements and
statements, it should be worth informing the public about them again and again.
The Rooppur NPP should be part of wider and more intensive dialogue between
Bangladesh and Russia on nuclear and nonnuclear security. Ref: (TOPYCHKANOV, 2017)
8. Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant: Unsafe, not viable!
The scientists, engineers, academics,
doctors, surgeons and other professionals of Bangladeshi origin living abroad
as well as conscientious foreign nationals and dignitaries, are very much
concerned about the safety and economic viability of the proposed nuclear power
plant at Rooppur. Our concerns arise from the following considerations: Ref: (Voice for Justice World, 2013)
1. The site at Rooppur, by the River
Padma, was chosen more than 50 years ago for a 10MWe prototype nuclear power
plant on purely political grounds by the then Pakistani Junta (in 1961). No
site selection procedure or environmental impact assessment was ever conducted,
but the present government wants to build not just one but two 1000 MWe units
on the same site. The River Padma is now heavily silted due to extraction of as
much as 75 per cent of water during the lean summer months by India using
Farakka Barrage only 40km upstream of the proposed site. The remaining amount
of water is woefully inadequate to meet the plant cooling requirement for even
one 1000MWe plant! This would increase the risk of nuclear accident as in
Fukushima (loss of coolant accident) to an unacceptable level and the present
government ignores this stark reality!
2. The Bangladesh government seems to
have been blinded by the Russian offer to build a nuclear power plant and
provide the loans for it. No consideration has been given to the suitability of
the proposed plant (VVER-1000) or its safety standards. The VVER-1000 is quite
outdated. Its safety standards fall so short that even in Russia the
construction of one of the VVER-1000 plants was cancelled in 2008. Former
Soviet block countries had to agree to decommission VVER-400 and VVER-1000
reactors before being allowed to join the EU. So why is Bangladesh now
accepting such an outdated, unsafe and discarded model?
3. The Minister in Charge and the
Chairman of the Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission claim that Russia will
build each of these units of VVER-1000 for $2 billion. However, Russia has said
nothing at all to that effect. Of this $2billion, $500million will be spent on
an exhibition centre, feasibility studies etc. The remaining $1,500 million is
inadequate as a similar plant in China, with quality third party parts, is
costing $4,500 million.
4. Bangladesh has no technical
expertise or skilled manpower to undertake such a complex and high tech
project. On top of that, the country has no industrial infrastructure and the
transport system is absolutely rudimentary. Most of the materials to be used in
the plant such as the quality assured high grade stainless steel, pipes,
valves, pumps and other components will have to be imported and the cost will
simply be prohibitive.
5. Bangladesh has no institutional
and regulatory framework to undertake a complex project like this and
consequently safety standards will be seriously impaired. The Minister in
Charge claimed that Russia has assured Bangladesh of the safety of the plant;
whereas the Russian state owned company, Rosatom (reactor vendor) has rightly
asserted that the responsibility of ensuring safety lies with the licensee
(Bangladesh government). The Bangladesh authorities seem to be unaware of the
legal implications of the licensing regime.
6. It seems no consideration has been
given to technical issues associated with the storage, transportation and
disposal of radioactive material and radioactive waste. The government claims
radioactive waste materials will go to Russia but Russia has said no such
agreement has been reached. Given these shortcomings and insurmountable
impediments, the Bangladesh government should seriously consider abandoning
this project. The risk of mismanaging a nuclear power plant is the inevitable
occurrence of a nuclear accident and the consequences are simply mind boggling
– thousands, if not millions, of people will be exposed to high doses of
radiation, large swathes of arable land will be contaminated with radioactive
materials and the country will be lumbered with billions of dollars of
compensation. When advanced countries like Germany, Italy, Switzerland have all
given up nuclear power plants and with Japan is tapering down nuclear power
production after the Fukushima disaster, Bangladesh seems to be charging ahead
recklessly. A grand vision is meaningless without competence, judgement and
knowledge.
9. NPP Reactor Building Protection against External
Impacts
Aircraft
crash The
possibility of aircraft crash is taken into account in the NPP design.
Snow
and ice loads Peak (extreme) snow load accepted in the design makes 4.1
kPa.
Seismic
loads NPP
is designed taking into consideration earthquakes with maximum horizontal
acceleration at the ground level of 0.25 g.
Hurricanes,
whirlwinds and tornado Safety - related components are designed taking into account
wind load at a wind speed of 30m/s at a height of 10m. At further stages of the
design, these values may be subject to change depending on specific site
conditions. The governing wind load is whirling effect. Loads accepted in the
design are loads caused by a whirl of class 3.60 as per Fujita scale.
External explosions Safety-related NPP components are
designed taking into account the shock wave caused by external explosion.
Pressure in the shock wave front is accepted to be of 30 kPa, collapse stage
duration is 1 s.
Ref: (Biswas, Hossain, & Hossain, 2016)
10. Result and Discussion
At present, Bangladesh is facing
energy and power crisis. The natural energy resources of Bangladesh mainly gas,
coal and hydro are decreasing very rapidly due to higher population growth.
Gas, being the main energy resources of the country is used mainly in three
categories: power generation, fertilizer production, and household. According
to Patrobangla, it would not possible to supply gas to new power plant after
2011. (Bhowmik & Barua, 2012) Due to lack of
reserve of gas, government is trying to generate power from coal in large
scale. But depending on different type of coal mining, the amount of recoverable
coal will be different. For the higher transportation cost, fuel cost and
environmental pollution, the coal based power generation is not safe for long
term plan. Also skyrocketing oil price is a major obstacle for power generation.
Water head is not available through the country which can solve power shortage
by Hydro power plant. In that situation nuclear power plant will be a good
option. The advantage of nuclear power plant over other options include:
absence of greenhouse gases, lower operating cost, less fuel consumption, less sensitivity
to fluctuations in the fuel price, cheaper generation cost with respect to
higher capacity cost. Bangladesh has gone a long way in getting ready for nuclear
power. Manpower has been trained, radiation safety bill has been passed, land
for the nuclear power station has been acquired, and many feasibility studies
have been made. Energy policy has clearly stated the necessity for energy security
and keeps all options for power production. Again this project has a
huge range of risks of human life due to radioactivity and risk of maintenance
of the plant. We cannot effort development in cost of human life. We need
search for other renewable energy sources of Bangladesh like solar, windmill
and traditional biomass etc as an alternative.
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